Media Create Sales Jan 20 - Jan 26

[Kongfucius]

Kresnik said:

Nem said:

Depends on what you are talking about.

I'm going to assume you are talking about Japan only.

The 3DS has decent 3rd party support in Japan, but the Vita, like the PSP before it sees better sales on 3rd party software ( i believe this is because Sony as strong as Nintendo as a first party).

Vita is presumably easy to develop for, and 3rd parties sell better (its multi-platofrm releases have matched PS3 sales with a much larger installed base).

So, i dont think its that weird to decide to bring your game to the Vita instead of the 3DS if you are a 3rd party. Only the strongest IP's seem to be able to sell on the 3DS. Even metal gear and tekken tanked quite badly.

Not even Vita - they're all going to mobile.  Companies who used to make a decent-ish output of handheld games last generation (Square-Enix; Capcom; Level-5) are all pushing harder and harder on mobile and ignoring the handheld market.  Vita has some third parties clinging on because of the nature of their games (i.e. the otaku developers - Gust; Compile Heart; Acquire; Nippon Ichi; Falcom) but they've lost all the bigger support aside from SEGA and Bamco; so it seems like it's hit 3DS harder because they don't really have the otaku niche to fill in the gaps which Vita has.

Admittedly they do get some support from the bigger companies where Vita gets little/none, but still.

Exactly what I would've said

What I hope will happen is that the developers and publishers will recognise that, though it may be smaller than before, there is still an audience for more substantial games on traditional handhelds, and the two will coexist. It won't be entirely mutually beneficial as one will still canabalize the other but I think it's possible, particularly as larger, non-F2P apps still haven't quite hit the crazy level of success that others have, a case in point being the DQVIII remake/port which I maintain would've sold more and been more profitable on 3DS or Vita than on mobile

Some people predict a mobile crash when the market becomes saturated, but I don't see it; it's based on too large a groundswell change in general gaming habits. I do however expect an adjustment eventually though as it is realized that by totally abandoning handhelds, the baby would be thrown out with the bath water and promising opportunities for success would be missed, thus causing the balance to swing the other way a little in favour of 3DS/PSV etc. This doesn't seem to be happening yet, which suggests to me that things will get worse before they get better, but I remain optimistic.

The question then of course is what will the new diminished market look like? I think most people would agree that Nintendo would almost never abandon handhelds, especially as right now they're their bread and butter, so perhaps Sony will pull out? Very plausable given the Vita's struggles, but they may still turn it around to quasi-respectable levels (~30m?).

I guess it just depends on how profitable it's been, if the margins are good both in terms of the actual HW and SW and the attach rate is high then there may be a case for a successor but I can't really see it unless Vita is turned around in a big way in the west and hits upwards of 50m, which is a long way away