PS4 will sell 200 million console sales this generation?

[QuintonMcLeod]

DerNebel said:

QuintonMcLeod said:

DerNebel said:

I expect the 3DS to be down starting from this year, ending up at about 80-90mil units sold lifetime. I don't see the Wii U ever really picking up in sales and probably ending up at around Gamecube levels, so 20-25mil. The PS4 seems to have some massive momentum behind it, if Sony manages to keep that up aka makes great first party games for it, keeps the price competitive and just doesn't fuck up the PS4s image somehow I can see the PS4 reach about 120mil maybe more, thus outselling the 3DS+Wii U.

I made a thread about it where pretty much everyone disagreed with me :D

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=175190

I love posts like this, because they're entirely based on holiday sales, and therefore, have no substance whatsoever.

People must understand that the PS4 broke all records mostly due to several different factors. 1) The industry needed next gen to happen and gamers wanted it really really badly. 2) The PS4 is new tech. 3) The previous generation lasted for far too long. Because of this, the industry became a bit distorted, and somewhat stale. The PS4 was more like a breath of fresh air from an old attic.

However, like all anomalies, we must be cautious in making our predictions (especially on holiday sales). What may seem like something totally successful, may cause problems later on for either the company in question or the system itself. We have to give the PS4 until March to see how it's doing. Holiday sales simply isn't enough to go by just yet.

Also remember that Sony is selling their system at a loss. I don't know the specifics, but I hear it takes the sale of one game to make that loss into a gain for Sony. However, I'm not too sure if Sony means first party games or 3rd party games (because many 3rd parties pay little to nothing in regards to royalties). Many of Sony's first party games aren't selling extremely well (with Killzone: Shadow Fall a bit over a million copies sold compared to over 4 million PS4s sold). It means that Sony is taking a massive blow financially just by selling the PS4. Maybe Sony can make up for a good portion of those losses in Japan when the PS4 is finally available there, but it wouldn't be enough to cover the total losses Sony is incurring for the PS4 world wide. I mean, we could be potentionally looking at another Dreamcast scenerio.

Sorry, but no this is not only based on holiday sales, this is based on what I see going on right now.

I still hear that stores are selling out quite quickly when they're getting PS4 stock, the PS4 is still ranking up at the top of Amazons best seller lists when Amazon gets stock, they're still alot of smaller countries that have hardly seen any PS4 stock since launch and apparently won't for another month or so, because Sony's sending most of their PS4 stock to the US and the big european markets to try and meet demand in these countries and I still haven't seen a single PS4 in a store.

The PS4 has some serious momentum behind it and that will keep going for a couple more months and like I've said after that it's Sonys job to build on top of that momentum with great games, marketing and so on and so forth and if they do that then I can see 120mil+ lifetime.

Now for that last paragraph, I suppose this is once again one of those "Sony is in financial trouble and is going to go bankcrupt" arguments and honestly I'm so freaking tired of those, I've been hearing them since 2008, with people saying that Sony won't even have enough money to launch another console after the PS3 and look where we're at now. I'm not going to deny that Sony is in difficult financial situation but I guarantee that the PS4 is not going to go away in the next 5 or so years. Also you logic that Sony is taking a massive blow just by selling the PS4 is very flawed, sure the console might be sold at a slight loss but according to our data here there have been about 9.8mil physical games sold for the PS4 (and third parties are of course paying royalties), add to that digitally bought games, PS+ subscription which have reportedly been up 90% since the PS4s launch, sales of the camera and extra controllers which I'm pretty sure about are both not sold at a loss (and which have both been selling really well too) and other accessories and it becomes much less clear if Sony is "taking a massive blow just by selling the PS4".

I honestly appreciate your reply. Unfortunately, your rose-colored glasses are out in full effect right now.

1) It's a known fact that hype for the system is dying down. This is normal.

2) There's no killer app on the PS4 right now to sustain its sales. Right now, people are simply buying it because it's the next Playstation.

3) Sony is in some serious financial trouble, but that isn't to say they can't turn it around.

4) You do realize that many 3rd parties "royalties" are off set from the free marketing Sony provides to them, right? You knew this, I'm sure.