Nintendo Screwing Up: The production claim

[Faxanadu]

Louie said:

Faxanadu said:

 

Green: I disagree

Red: Bad/ inconsistent logic.

Good logic would be: People only buy games when they buy a new console->more games are released during xmas and ninty wants them to sell well->stockpiling.

your red line only supports my argument.

You dissagree that more games are released during Christmas? Wow...

No the red lined part proves your point wrong. And don´t try to spin it around, my point was people buy games when they are released and not months after a games release (--> core title behaviour). More games are released during the last Quarter of the year, I hope you agree here at least.

So when will you ship most hardware? Right, when a lot of games are released, when the most high profile titles are released, during christmas.

Or in other words: Which game do you want to sell more? Minigame Collection 200054 (released in June) or your high profile game you developed on for years? (released at Christmas). It is true, higher install base means higher game sales but people chose at least one game they buy with their console and Nintendo surely wants this to be the title they developed for the Christmas release. Additionally 3rd parties will also be happier if their Christmas titles sell, rather than their June titles. You can drive demand much higher during Christmas than during the rest of the year. Nintendo isn´t sure about Wii demand, otherwise they would produce a lot more consoles. They do not just sit around and expect their momentum to last while they are sending out every console they have produced, they rather wait for Christmas and do know for certain that the consoles they manufactured sell out.

And that´s only about Nintendo and 3rd parties - what would shop keepers say if they couldn´t sell Wii´s during christmas? Do you really think it doesn´t matter when you ship the things you produced if there is not enough of it?

Honest question: Do you really believe in what you say? It goes against any fundaments of capitalism and the way the market works...

 

Edit: You didn´t even answer to my other argument: All companies are stockpiling, otherwise you wouldn´t see high Christmas sales - its just that Nintendo doesn´t produce enough units for the slower months, in contrast Sony always produced enough units to meet demand during the summer, that´s why nobody talked about it.

Green: I fully agree with you.

Red: see my answer to red above. do you understand the gap in your logic?

Yellow: SSBB, WiiFit, MK Wii, MP3 all say hello. How close to Xmas will they be released? Exactly.

 

@Entroper: You are right. That is the ONLY valid reason. Access to a different customer segment. All other reasons fail.

 

For Louie, Entroper to illustrate my point. A small case:

Data:   60 million wiis, produced before Month 0, case period: 24 months

Assumption: Each console owner buys one game every 3 months but NO MORE, starting at day of purchase. NO games older than 6 months are being bought (as in:; thank you, Louie.)

Assumption: Shipped ALWAYS = sold  

Assumption: Xmas at 0, 12 and 24 months 

Business Case 1:  Sell all 60 million at Month 0. Result after 24 Months: 60 Million consoles sold, 480 million games sold

Business Case 2: Sell  20 million each Xmas. Result after 24 months: 60 million consoles sold, 260 million games sold

Here I stop, even before mentioning the cost of warehouse space....