The Xbox One is currently $500. For a lot of people in Xbox's target market -- that's a whole paycheck, rent, student loan payment, a down payment on a badly needed new car... Since there's still an abundance of relevant, good games to play on the 360, the conversion rate may not be as high as some might expect -- unless the next COD were to skip the 360 entirely (Halo5 probably will though). Also, I don't expect the MS board + new CEO to sign off on a price cut too soon.
Then there's the "blue ocean" of Nintendo's target market that still doesn't know the WiiU exists -- but will come to know it in the coming months because of Ninty's impressive slate of games. It's not out of the question for WiiU to sell even below $200 if the hardware costs could be cut. Yes WiiU to this point hasn't done well, but most of Ninty's potential market don't give a hoot about console wars.
The demographics, economics, and other trends clearly point to a WiiU advantage.
I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016
