drkohler said:
You are assuming that people will continue to rush to stores to buy the consoles like there is no tomorrow. What you are currently seeing is the hardcore crowd that was lamenting the "too many years without the new consoles" on every message board. That crowd probably stops at around 5mio units for every console. Then comes the "reasonable" crowd, people who can wait until "their game" appears. This crowd is much bigger than the hardcore crowd and can wait for months until they buy. Add to the fact that the whole console market might be shrinking as we could read after every NPD report in the past umpteen months. None of the current consoles ever even came close to selling 15m units a year, so 20m is a _very_ optimistic assumption. We will se what happens in the next few months, postulating numbers is just an extremely wild guess currently (Wii taken out of the picture obviously, but Nintendo already got beaten up badly with their "NextGen WiiU will be like Wii" assumption). |
And you're assuming casual people don't want a PS4 after that 5m like you say....PS3 ended 2007 with 9'1m and Wii ended 2007 with 19'5m. How can you say the most popular console of this gen is not capable of selling 15m????? In fact, if PS4 don't sell 15+m this year, the industry as a whole is in serious trouble....
And you're saying it will be difficult for a console to sell 20m in a year..., obviously you didn't do your homework because PS2 back then and Wii beat the 20m figure in a year various times, so PS4 will do it almost 100% sure. In fact, PS4 will sell 25m in one year, note it, and if i have to guess...., in 2015 or 2016.
