Okay, time to give it a go.
Handhelds first:
Vita: 9.6 million and about 2.5-2.6 for the CY, I basically believe that the Vita's attempt at market convergence will exact its toll even worse in 2014, software, price and advertising doesn't matter, nor will hardware revisions; the core product was designed too close to the fire (smartphones/tablets) and will remain largely irrelevant.
3DS: 53 million, about 12 million for the CY. It has more time and market relevance than the Vita and never attempted to force market convergence, but it is still headed down in my opinion, the smartphone/tablet onslaught will become only worse. 3DS likely peaked in 2013 and is set to sell perhaps a little over half of the DS' lifetime sales at this rate, the decline will only accelerate from 2015 and onwards. Note that this factors in some post holiday adjustments, especially in Europe, leaving the 3DS with about 41 million at year end 2013.
Home consoles:
Xbox One: 11 million, about 8 million for the CY, matching roughly the PS3's first full year and selling about 70% of the PS4's numbers for the CY. The One will have a decent year due to some pretty good software, a price cut and some great advertisement and online focus, I also expect some sort of trade-up incentive for existing 360 owners to make the jump, through software, DLC or perhaps even trade-in deals on the 360 unit itself when purchasing a One.
PS4: 15.5 and about 11-11.5 for the CY, basically around the PS3's second full year, not unreasonable given the momentum and apparent perceived value. Lower price, some good software, proper advertising and overall very positive consumer and press outlooks, it quite simply appears to have the superior perceived value right now and I see no reason for that to change in 2014, it also has no gimmick or market convergence attempt hampering it by providing a somewhat biploar identity (Gamepad and Kinect will cause more harm than good, ultimately and in my opinion).
Wii U: 10 million and about 4.7-4.9 million for the CY. I'm seeing more and more numbers, trends and even official and unofficial statements to confirm my theory; the Gamepad's attempt at market convergence will be only detrimental to Nintendo's entire 8th gen effort and a Wii U without the Gamepad won't be a Wii U; they have essentially painted themselves into the corner. The half-assed online, no proper media playback and terrible 3rd party support ensuring a rather narrow library showing will also tug and pull. Despite this; with the baseline being as low as it was in 2013, I just can't see any scenario where it would go down for the CY 2014, I believe it can manage about 50% up yoy on average, with an improved Q4 due to another price cut and some good software being the main drive behind this increase. However, I think a lot of people are being delusional in thinking about 100-200% or even bigger increases yoy for 2014, there simply is no room for such growth with the core product being designed the way it is, no amount of advertising, 1st party software or price reductions will remedy the core product; it is what it is and very few actually know precisely that: what is it? It doesn't even know itself.
My 2013 year end numbers were less than incredible, here's hoping for a better year of predictions. Regardless, I never change them thorugh the year, hindight adjustments are cheating and make the whole prediction baseless and worthless in general and turns it into more of a semi-educated estimation or forecast.
