Here are my expectations on the potential situations that can occur in 2014 and their effects on sales, and this situation is only if Nintendo's management remains stable and includes the continuation of Wii U as a part of their strategy going forward. This is not certain at this point after the announcement of the third consecutive year of losses which might cause shareholders to want management and Iwata's announcement of considering a new business model might indicate that the current management is thinking radically changing their direction; we will get a better picture of this management situation in Jaunary 30th and later in April; but the stability of management cannot be guaranteed until late-June (with Nintendo's annual shareholders meeting).
With all of this being said here is my prediction:
Individual strategies under assumption that current management stays stable:
1. With the current software lineup (which I assume will be enhanced by E3 2014).
2. With a $50 price cut
3. With a $100 price cut (potentially con-current with a cost cutting re-design)
4. Discontinuation of Wii & Wii Mini
Results based on strategies that have been combined:
1= around 3.3 million
1+2(and potentially+4)= around 3.8-4.2 million (this is what I assume Nintendo will do; actual figures will depend on advertising and bundles).
1+3= around 7-8 million
1+3+4= around 7.5-8.5 million (sweet spot sales wise)
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