December 2013 NPD Thread! - Everything is in the OP!

[binary solo]

sales2099 said:

MoHasanie said:
860K is still fantastic and obviously could've been much higher if they shipped more. Some people here were celebrating as if X1 outsold the PS4 2:1...

To be fair it wasn't expected to outsell it at all.

And most people here live in America. It is a home turf victory. After all, why would a American gamer truly care about sales in a continent they don't live in?

That is simply not true, or rather far from being universally true. PS4>Xb one may have been an expectation of a slight majority of people. But I think it was more the opinion of a very vocal minority. Many of us felt it would be close and could be a small victory to either console. But the main factor was that VGC had Xb one edging PS4, which means the expectations of anyone who is interested in using objective evidence to make predicitons is that Xb one was likely to be the leading nexgen console for December.

Considering that NPD probably only has a 97% confidence the true picture could still be a very slight PS4 win. That is the difference between Xb one and PS4 is not statistically significant at 97% confidence. You need 99% confidence to say the Xb one win isprobably real. But the official number gives it to Xb one, so that's how it is.

So one might say that you merely saying that Xb one wasn't expected to win is an attempt to make a narrow victory seem far more significant and important than it is. This narrow win isn't really significant for Xb one vs. PS4 because factors other than simple consumer preference are at play.

The sales in 2013 have done nothing to indicate which console will ultimately be the leading console in the USA. But it does strongly suggest it won't be a walkover by either one. And one thing is for certain, it won't be 1.6:1 (which is the 360:Ps3 ratio) in favour of Xb one.