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I'd think late 2016, but depending on what their next platform is, and how long it takes to bring it to market with software and services in place, they might not launch a replacement until as late as 2017. Nintendo considered launching GameCube as early as 1999, and would have done had their initial deal with their planned chip supplier not fallen through. It really depends on what kind of shift in business strategy Iwata is talking about and preparing.