Anyone notice this little tidbit on Gamedaily?
"We anticipate the video game release of GTA IV on April 29th could dampen the potential from Iron Man's theatrical release on May 2nd," said Hickey. "The domestic box office's first week of May release schedule includes Iron Man, Made of Honor, Redbelt and Son of Rambow. The last significant video game release, Halo 3, generated over $300 million in sales from its first week in the market. Halo 3 was released on just one platform, the Xbox 360, and attached nearly 50% of the installed base. GTA IV will be released on both the Xbox 360 and PS3, which have both significantly increased their installed bases since the release of Halo 3. A GTA IV 25% attach rate to a combined Xbox 360 and PS3 installed base at its April 29th release would imply 5.8 million units sold or roughly $360 million in retail sales the first week of the game's release."
PS3+360 in the Americas currently = 15.44 million
Add 7 weeks of hardware sales...160k/week between both for weeks...then 750k for the last three weeks...
Something like 16.83 million in the Americas....which is 4.2 million units sold at 25%. Now if he is talking shipments, then yeah its probably 4.5-5 million shipped.
My take is he is including Europe (not Others, just Europe) though, or else the prediction seems high.
Europe for 360+PS3 is currently at 8.4 million. It will reach 9.4 million by the time GTAIV ships.
But...(9.4+16.83)(1/4) = 6.56 million if it sold that well in the West.
Overall, this prediction just seems about 15% too high for shipments or 10% too low for sellthrough using a 25% attach ratio for 1st week sales
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
