So, which do you think will hit 100 Million units sold first: PS3 or PS4?

[bouzane]

superchunk said:

bouzane said:

Neither the PS2 nor PSP suffered 50% YoY declines after the launches of their successors so why would this happen to the PS3? I don't even need to mention the fact that the emerging markets greatly prefer the Playstation brand and Sony will likely capitalize upon this by pushing the PS3. This will allow them to cement their brand in these markets while recouping the early losses generated by the PS3. I honestly can not understand how you concluded that the PS3 would sell between 90 and 93 million units, your prediction is simply too low. I would expect no less than 95 million due to past trends for the brand as well as the emerging markets where Sony currently dominates.

I don't have PS2 data, but here is the data I do have.

PSP went from 7.5m to 4.3m
DS went from 20m to 8.8m
Wii went from 11.5m to 5.2m

Granted Wii was already dropping that fast, but other two were not, at least not to that degree.

I expect PS360 to do same in 2014 vs 2013;  YOY decline of approx 50%.

DS and Wii trends are irrelevant to the Playstation brand as Nintendo does not support legacy systems nearly as extensively as Sony. In 2012 and 2013 the PSP's sales were down YoY by 42, then 28 percent. If the PS3 trends downward at the same rate then we can expect it to sell 5093833 and 3667560 units in 2014 and 2015. That leaves the lifetime sales at just over 91 million. Unless sales drop another 45 percent in 2016 with production ending by the end of the year sales will exceed 93 million. The PS3 stands to gain from additional price cuts and expansion into developing markets while software sales and development are still quite healthy. The PS3 is in far better shape than the PSP circa 2011 so I think it is a pretty safe bet that LTD unit sales will exceed 95 million.