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Seece on 11 January 2014
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benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:

October+November+December global data = more then 7.6m units sold. Shipments are usually higher then sell-through data. 1.4M units sitting on storeshelves is far from impossible. 

It's overtracked.

NPD shows around 2.2m, Mediacreate shows around 1.7m, Europe will be on par with US so 2.2m, the rest of the world accounts for 10% of those sales combined. Total comes to 6.7m.

You're assuming Europe will be equal to the US when the past has always proven otherwise. DS sold a lot more in Europe then they did in the US. Also, when I calculate, we only have it overtracked by 200k in the US which still puts it at 7.4m. May I ask you again, where are you taking those figures except a bunch of assumptions for Europe and "others" and the rest of America. 

Anyways, we'll know the figures in 18 days. I am not saying that I'm stating facts, I'm merely stating my opinion here. If we really do have it overtracked by 1m like you're suggesting, then your 7-8m figure for Q4 might be right. 

3DS is not DS. Take a look at this - http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/131030e.pdf

3DS LTD as of September 30th

Americas - 11.43m
Others - 10.22m

Others = Europe and everywhere else.
Americas = US and NA/SA.

You could argue which is bigger, the fact is they're neck and neck and US is probably a better market for 3DS than Europe. Case in point the previous 6 months Americas outshipped Others by 240k. (1.17m to 0.97m).

Also using US, Europe and Japan you can guage (and have been able to for a long time) that every other market makes up 10% of 3DS sales.

So I reiterate.

US is at 2.2m (thanks to NPD we know this), Europe is probably the same, Japan is 1.7m. Plus the 10% elsewhere. The sales are around 6.7m it could fluctuate either way a couple hundred k.

Also like I just said, bare in mind there was stock on shelves end of September. Probably 1m+, of which are part of that 6.7m. So saying you predict 9m shipped is saying you think there is 3.3m on shelves/warehouses.