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Not only is Sony breaking even with the 40GB PS3, but they are doing so at 400 USD.
Considering they didn't notice the EURO more than 50% above the dollar and still sell
it here at 400 EUR, that's all margin they have to cut and compete.

I believe they will closely watch and evaluate maket reaction and before GTA4 they will
most probably go for option 2.
Somehow MS cut is a double edged sword, on the one hand it will surely boost quick sales
from those who were waiting and some impulsive buyers.
On the other hand it will further sink x360 loser's image in Europe.
I'd also wait and see if I were Sony.
And I'd also would keep financing Japanese and American PS3 with
euros as long as we Europeans are willing to pay for it
(I own a PS3 from launch day myself, so there is no criticism intended here)