Seven early takeaways from the eighth generation

[vivster]

RolStoppable said:

2. The industry stays on the same trajectory as in the seventh generation

The breadth of available retail software will keep getting narrower while the blockbusters will accumulate more sales per individual title. Nothing was done to reverse the fortunes of the middleground games. The market will increasingly shift towards the Call of Duties, Assassin's Creeds, Battlefields, FIFAs and Maddens, not just because people want to play those games, but also because there won't be any real alternatives. Games that do not exist cannot sell, as I like to say.

5. The 3DS is still failing, because it was conceived with the same philosophy as the Wii U

Right, I shouldn't say the 3DS is failing, because it was the best-selling video game system in 2013. That's what the general consensus is, the 3DS is doing great. But it really isn't. Just like the Wii U's strategy revolved around taking gamers away from Sony and Microsoft, so did the 3DS's strategy revolve around taking gamers away from Sony. And while the 3DS at least succeeded somewhat in its mission (securing Monster Hunter exclusivity helped a lot), it came at the cost of driving away a lot of DS customers. Nintendo certainly noticed some of their errors and tried to fix them, but not everything can be fixed, so not all of the problems will go away.

6. The PS4 will be the best-selling home console in every country

Why wouldn't it be? There is no such thing as widespread brand loyalty. If Nintendo could usurp Atari in the USA, Sony Nintendo, Nintendo Sony, and Microsoft Nintendo, then why shouldn't Sony be able to beat Microsoft? Did you have problems to read and comprehend the previous sentence?

7. Nobody gives a damn about the Vita

Even I almost forgot about its existence. Just kidding, I already mentioned its failure briefly earlier in this post.

A few things...

 I disagree with number 2. There is not less middle tier games out. It might seem so because first they are not as visible anymore and second a few of them graduated to top tier games. Also there is the relatively new wave of indies which started last generation but is now in full force and they are selling decently and are great alternatives to AAA titles.

Can you elaborate a bit on what drove DS customers away from the 3DS? Because I'm, not seeing that at all now that the great games are flowing.

There is widespread brand loyality. Well less to the brand and more to the exclusive games and past achievements on predecessors. If it wasn't for the legacy of the PS2 the PS3 would've failed. If it wasn't for the legacy of the 360 the X1 would've failed. You can however shift the odds a bit if your competition is so bad that it will drive customers to you.

PS4 will still have a hard time in the US and Brazil. Also maybe a few really small markets where few sales make big differences. It's quite possible that the PS4 will be behind in a few countries.

The succcess of the Vita will be determined at the end of this year. There are too many unknown variables like games, remote play, PSNow, price cuts, Vita TV. But if it fails this year as well I'm with you on that.