I think you are leaving out many things that you (and other Nintendo people) had predicted would happen with the Xbox1 and PS4 that has not happen nor will ever happen.
1. The high price of the Xbox and PS4 will prevent them from achieving any success in the short term (launch period). PS4 was an exception since the PS3's price was an outlier but I'm sure you did not have these numbers in mind.
2. Since many of the same software titles will be releasing for the Xbox360 and PS3, that will stunt software growth for their successors (and in turn stunt hardware sales). Look at FIFA sales in the UK, November's NPD, hell I'm sure even the upcoming release of Yakuza in Japan, many titles you have the next gen version outselling older titles.
3. The Economies in Europe and the rest of the world will prevent the xbox1 and PS4 from thriving in the short term. All stock markets around the world are near record highs, Germany unemployment at 6.9% is almost 20+ year lows. Many economies while not roaring they are doing well enough for people who purchase games/new consoles.
All three of these events have not happened nor will happen. People like Maelstrom and the guy from Review Tech USA continue to hold the belief that we must wait multiple months to determine a real picture and I say that when that data comes the same result will be present.
What the start of this generation has told me is that:
1. Nintendo as a barometer of the state of the gaming industry is small. Many in the Nintendo camp hold the belief that Nintendo struggling means the overall gaming industry is struggling and that just is not the case. Nintendo's is continuing its downward path when it comes to their home consoles and are realizing that facing real competetion in the mobile/handheld space does pose problems for them. The only times Nintendo has had success with home consoles is after a diaster (80s gaming crash) or something extremely new (Wii). When it has to face competetion face to face (Sega in the 90s, Playstation since 94, Microsoft since 00) they struggle, only relying on a hardcore Nintendo base that is shrinking.
Also Maelstrom believe that the Wii U and 3DS are not cut from the same cloth as the DS and Wii which is pretty much hogwash.
2. The PS3 and Vita had very little in damaging Sony's overall playstation brand.
3. Japan is becoming irrelevant. Japan inc really need to start thinking outside the box and get their main franchises to western shores faster. They need to advertise and localize faster, its where the growth is.
4. The fight for the living room is as fierce as ever.
