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Sal.Paradise on 09 January 2014
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Kresnik said:
Sal.Paradise said:

Exactly, the Vita had a comparatively tiny install base and sold comparatively tiny software numbers in its first year to the PS3 at the same time (still does, of course) yet an enhanced port managed to sell 700k. A dying PS3 is still more conducive to software sales than a newborn Vita, unfortunately, and so P5 is going to breeze past P4G sales. Persona has grown a lot since P4, P4G demonstrates that, and Atlus know what they're doing putting the long awaited sequel on PS3. 


Being the most noticable and - for quite some time - only Japanese RPG on Vita gave it much greater exposure than Persona 5 will get, at a time where PS3 is swamped in a sea of JRPG's.  If this "userbase = more sales" argument stood true, Sal, we both know Vita would get 0 games ever.  So I don't quite understand why you're bringing that up here :P

Also, check my edit in the last post.  The figure we should be comparing is 590k, not 700k, unless VGC magically decides to start tracking digital (and well, shipped for that matter) some time soon and retroactively adjusts all previous titles.

I just don't see it.  Many people will have upgraded to PS4 by the time Persona 5 releases in the west, especially if PlayStation Now releases that year and people decided that is acceptable for their backwards compatibility fix.  Persona 3 & 4 saw similar "twilight year" releases on PS2, which obviously had a much larger userbase than Vita will ever have, but that didn't propel them to 1m sales.

I'd be very happy if Persona 5 makes it, but PS3 will be on its absolute last legs in Japan by the end of 2014 and I have no idea what state it'll be in the west in late 2014 - 2015, but I can't imagine it'll be much better.  Combined with, like I said, Persona being one of those series which tends to be a lot more internet hyped than real world sales recognises. 

"userbase = more sales"  is an extremely reductive version of what I was saying, so I don't know what your first paragraph is doing there! Install base definitely plays a part in this scenario, when they are so similar. I bet there's a ton of overlap between PSV owners that bought P4G and PS3 owners that will buy P5, but with the added benefit of the rest of the potential audience that exists on the PS3. Especially in Japan, where it's the primary console for older teens/young adults that are the market Persona games (and their anime movies) hit square in the face. 

And why should we care what the VGC number is, if the 700k is the accurate one. The argument is whether P5 can hit 1 mil, doesn't matter whther that's digital or physical (we just have to rely on Atlus releasing the total number, which considering they did for P4G and P5 is definitely going to sell more, I'd say it's a safe bet they will :P).

As for P3 and 4 releasing in the twilight years, as I said, the franchise has seriously grown since then. 700k on Vita! VITA! Vita is no PS2 you know! And I don't see PS3 being on its last legs in Japan. The transition to PS4 will be a slow one for JP players and an even slower one for their devs. It will still see healthy software sales in JP in 2014. The West will be a worse situation though for sure, and if it appears on this Playstation Now thingy that will throw a spanner in the works, I'll give you that. Game streaming in general is going to screw up our sales figures as indicators of performance quite a bit.