3DS had sold about 10.5 million by Black Friday last year. It would need to sell about 7.7 million to reach 50 million by Black Friday this year. And with games like Kirby Triple Deluxe, Smash Bros 3DS, and Yoshi's New Island already known to be coming and Nintendo always keeping most of their cards to their proverbial chest, I'd expect it to easily reach 50 million, probably by late September.
(note: my numbers above are using the week containing New Years as the first week of a year)







