predict when the hype stops

[AAA300]

Hamister said:

AAA300 said:

There are too many threads on when will ps4xbox pass wii u its just plain stupid! I think its time to predict when the launch hype stops when all the hardcore have bought there brand of choice and sales slow down on the new systems. The hardcore crowd is not as big as most of the users here would like to belive and there is not a whole lot of games on the new console to convenience the average gamer to jump in.I think will see a drop faster than what most people would like outside of japans launch I think it dies down in late jan. early feb. Most games are on old and new consoles the average gamer has no big reason to buy a new console if cod or titanfall bf4 or madden are still on the old.PS3 had a big launch because of the hardcore fans and than it slowed considerable same with wii u so dont act like its not possible!  

Finally someone who's willing to make a reality check. I also believe we will see quite a dramatic slow down in sales for PS4 and XboxOne soon. I'd say the hype will ease off in early february for PS4 in the US and in Europe, and the same will happen fpr XboxOne a few weeks earlier in the territories where it was released last year. The Japanese PS4 launch will compensate for the slowdown in february and in march, and with a bit of luck maybe even in april. However from then on the hype will be gone. For XboxOne launches in new territories won't compensate for the slow down, leading to quite a bad spring and summer for Microsoft.

I'd say the hardcore market consists of 10-15 million consumers, so called very early adopters. They should be split quite even between XboxOne and PS4 (perhaps with a slight advantage to PS4). This means the hype in the hardcore community will ease off once the systems reach sales between 5-7,5 million respectively. The will start to ease off sometime between february and may depending on territory.

I think we will see very low sales of all three next generation systems during the summer, perhaps with Wii U being the only positive surprise thanks to Mario Kart 8's expected broad appeal. Not that I think Wii U will outsell PS4 in the summer, but it migh actually perform better than expected, while the others perform either slightly lower than expected, or in XboxOne's case, really bad.

 

The hype for PS4 and XboxOne will kick in again in september, when we will see the first true next generation releases for those systems, and the main stream market will begin to jump on board.

All the above might lead to PS4 overtake Wii U sales in september/october, instead of april/may as some people take for granted. And XboxOne might not overtake Wii U until early 2015.

The sad thing is when things slow down will hear the smart phone tablet eating into the console market argument when the truth is there are only so many early adopters in the console market and the rest will sit back and wait for a bigger selection of games!