predict when the hype stops

[zorg1000]

Touma said:

zorg1000 said:

Touma said:

The GameCube had a lot of good games "made Nintendo" and yet sales was not so great. They need to be supported by the third party to attract new buyers, this is why the number of potential buyers is much better for the PS4 and XB1.

The original Xbox had great third party support with the best versions of multiplats, most powerful, best online, multimedia functions, reasonable price and big exclusives like Halo/Fable/KOTOR/Elder Scrolls/Doom/Gotham Racing yet it sold less than 25m.

360 fared much better because of the year head start and massive price advantage over PS3 in the first half of the gen and Kinect which revitalized 360 sales in the second half of the gen. It doesnt have those advantages over PS4 and the Kinect popularity has died down drastically.

The Xbox brand has definitely grown since the original Xbox but its very possible that One sales are much less than 360 and that Playstation retakes a large part of the hardcore crowd 360 was able to steal from PS2.

Because the original Xbox was a new brand, at that time people just knew Nintendo, Sega and Sony for the video games, trust is earned over time, and yes it's possible that XB1 sales are less that 360 but the gap will not be as big as in the sixth generation, sales in america will be good, it's important for microsoft.

Def not as big a gap in the 6th gen but Japan is irrelevent for Xbox and Europe doesnt look like its going to be so hot plus America isnt very loyal when it comes to consoles.

2nd gen Atari dominated

3rd gen Nintendo dominated

4th gen Nintendo & Sega had a close battle

5th gen Sony clearly won with Nintendo having a respectable 2nd

6th gen Sony dominated

7th gen Nintendo dominated first half, Microsoft dominated 2nd half and Sony was in a distant but respectable 3rd

America just chooses what is the must have console at the time and the high price of Xbox plus mistakes that Nintendo has made lead me to believe Sony will have a strong hold of the American market. The $200 price difference could make the battle between Xbox and Wii U much closer than many believe in the early going. I have no doubt that Xbox will outsell Wii U in the long run but 2014 could be a relatively close battle with both having big guns release, Wii U-Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros, Xbox-TitanFall/Halo. Multiplats wont help as much on One as they did on 360 with PS4 having a huge advantage in Europe (70-30 split) and probably an advantage in America (60-40 split).

By the end of 2014 I could see both Wii U and Xbox around 10m with either one having a chance at being slightly higher than the other. 2015 could see Xbox start to pull ahead by a few million and the gap increase each year.