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The point of no return is if exactly one year from now, at the beggining of 2015, it didn't pick up the sales to more than acceptable levels. Nintendo has a good line-up for this year, and we also have to wait until E3 to see if they announce any big titles (Maybe Paper Mario U) for the second half of the year.
It's logical to expect a MK8´+ Wii U bundle and commercials everywhere. I remember a few years back when I saw the MK Wii commercial on tv all the time which actually surprised me since I live in Argentina and there are rarely proper videogame commercials, so if MK8 has that level of marketing, then it might push the sales further than we expect.