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Twilord said:
True, though I can't help thinking Sega seem inclined to "fan herding"

That is pretty much the exact opposite of what Sega has done ever since they went 3rd party. They may herd the Sonic fans mostly on one console, the Yakuza on another, and as seen with the original Xbox might have some overall slight favoritism here and there, but by and large they always produce plenty of exclusives for each sytem in every gen.

The best indicator for Shenmue 3 going to the Wii U would be the bird trailer (which I certainly belive indicates, at least at one point, Nintendo was seriously considering funding it). However, there are also indications for a possible PS4 deal: those pictures of Cerny with Suzuki,  Cerny translating for Suzuki at GDC, and Gio Corsi from Sony specifically naming Shenmue's demand from Playstation fans. There are even rumours of Microsofting funding Shenmue 3 as their big Japanese exclusive for this gen.

Who knows what's really going on behind the scenes at this point, but I definitely wouldn't say it's in the clear for any of the console producers at this point.