Lets say VGC has severly undertracked Wii U in 4th quarter. (unlikely being we get weekly japanese sales and VGC overtracked Wii U in oct and Nov in US)... but lets throw out any logic and say its completely undertracked. VGC says ~1.5m right now so lets put it up to 2mil for end of year to take the missing week into consideration and say thats undertracked by 500k...
that means you are expecting 60% of 4th quarter sales in the 1st quarter. That is simply unheard of. You should expect something closer to 20%. So lets say its undertracked greatly and close to 2.5m, the most someone should realisticly expect is close to 500k Jan - March. And thats generous!