The downside with your projections is that they just use mathmatical averages to determine what somethings going to do.
That's exactly how JohnLucas thought the Wii was going to overtake the 360 by mid-June.
That didn't happen.
You can project all you one, but it's a difficult thing to fully project consumer trends, expecially with the price drops coming, strength of software, future attach ratios, ect, ect, ect.
I'll hold on to a slightly modified prediction I made early this year for the prediction league -
Xbox 360 - 17.5m (11.0m going into Sept. from Aug, 6.5m sold from Sept-Dec due to Halo3, Pricedrop, GTA and a very strong US/European sales)
Wii - 17.0m (overtaking the Xbox 360 in September for 1-2 weeks, only to lose due to H3 fever, then further after GTA fever. Will place about 2m under 360 in the US for holidays, but make up 1.5m in Japan/Europe)
Playstation 3 - 7.5m (continues pitiful sales through the year, 5.0m by late October, even after GTAIV is out. decent sales for Christmas, but far behind that of 360/Wii)
Nintendo DS - 59.5m (officially had 54.5m, but I realized about 5 days afterwards that I was going to be off immensely. DS is tracking right at 500-600k per week, and will continue at that pace until a breakneck Christmas/holiday season.)
Playstation Portable - 28.0m (just kinda going at a steady pace the rest of the year, no big bumps, or utter failures....Keep at a 100k-150k per week average, then a so-so Christmas campaign).
Exactly where are you on the prediction league again, freed?
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
