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JWeinCom on 30 December 2013
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Arius Dion said:
Soleron said:

It's simple. PS4 and One didn't increase software demand because they're not expanding the market. They're only replacing PS3 sales with PS4 ones.

So there's no reason to expect total software unit sales to be up. Even CoD is significantly down year-over-year confirmed by Activision.

I expect this to mislead companies into investing way too much in next-gen and then losing money when sales don't increase.


Excellent point. Here's the ironic thing about it all; they are replacements to machines that were already fighting over a shrinking market. It's still shrinking. This gen will be ugly. 

The market was just shrinking because of the timing of everything.  End of a generation and all.  PS4 and XBox One CAN expand the market, but Assasin's Creed, COD, and Battlefield aren't going to do it.

Right now Sony seems 100% focussed on taking Microsoft out.  Their marketing has been really really focussed on bashing MS.  They're trying so hard to fight for the 360's market share that they're missing bigger opportunities.  Meanwhile, Microsoft is banking on their multimedia features and Kinect to expand the market, but the market doesn't really seem all that interested.  They're just not generating a ton of buzz in the mainstream.

The Wii U still remains the most likely candidate to expand the market.  I think the idea of taking something familiar (the tablet) and applying it to gaming could be a great way to further lower the barrier for gaming... but Nintendo hasn't created the software to back it up, and the marketing isn't there.  In both the 3DS and the Wii U, Nintendo has been really conservative.  They need some big new IPs and quickly.