Macroaxis: Sony Has 79% Chance of Going Bankrupt in the Next 2 Years

[irstupid]

Aielyn said:

DirtyP2002 said:
“Based on latest financial disclosure Sony Corporation has Probability Of Bankruptcy of 78%. This is 182.34% higher than that of Consumer Goods sector, and 163.57% higher than that of Electronic Equipment industry, The Probability Of Bankruptcy for all stocks is 122.48% lower than the firm.”

The numbers provided here are meaningless, and thus I distrust the claim being made. The probability of bankruptcy of all stocks can't possibly be 122.48% lower, because that would make the probability negative, and probabilities can't be negative. Furthermore, one cannot talk of a probability of an event being "182% higher" than that of another event - anybody with even a meagre grasp on statistics knows that this is a meaningless thing to say.

As much as I think Sony is in financial trouble, I don't think this supposed analysis is meaningful. And, just as with any other case of analysis being released for free, I find it to be highly suspicious.

Learn how to read statistics before you comment.

If my company has a 20% chance of failing and yours has a 50% of failing.  Your chance of failing can be read as 150% higher than mine.

That doesn't mean you are at 170%.  Your number is just 150% or 2.5x higher than my number.