I noticed that with all regions in for the week ending June 3, 2007, 360 is down to just over 46% worldwide marketshare. My question is what do you think will be the peak marketshare for Wii and PS3, and the minimal marketshare for 360 (since it launched first 360 can never top the 100% share it had in 2005 of the 360/Wii/PS3 market, while PS3 and Wii can never hit 100% because 360 exists, and sells). I would say 360 will see its post PS3 European launch peak this December when it is on x-mas three in all markets with games that appeal to all three markets.
Nintendo's marketshare I think will peak in 2008 or 2009, when all the games that are starting to be developed come out, and when is cheaper and has benefited from even more momentum. PS3 I think will have one quick 2007-Wii sales like peak when it gets to a much lower price, before it gets shoved to the side as the people who support it now for technical prowess get hot and heavy with the next-generation.
Basically, I have PS3 bottoming out in early 2008 after getting far less sales over the holidays than Wii or 360, and peaking in marketshare in late 2009, and once more at the end of the generation. 360 I think peaks this December, before steadily dropping in overall marketshare the rest of the generation, at first slowly because just Wii will be outselling it, but then more once PS3 outsells it worldwide, except very late when it becomes very cheap. Below I have my LTD sales estimation (x% - peak for year, y% min for year). Note that I have LTD generation sales at 200 million...bold numbers equal 100% at one point of the year, italics numbers equal 100% at the other point of the year..assuming all peaks and lows happened at the same time..
Year 360 Wii PS3
2005 100%
2006 (100%, 67%) (22%,0%) (11%, 0%)
2007 (67%,36%) (46%, 22%) (18%, 11%) (42 million ltd)
2008 (36%,29%) (51%, 46%) (20%,18%)
2009 (29%, 22%) (51%, 50%) (27%, 20%) (110 million ltd)
2010 (26%, 22%) (50%, 48%) (27%, 26%) (140 million ltd)
2011 (26%, 25%) (48%, 45%) (30%, 26%) (170 million ltd)
2012 (28%, 25%) (45%, 40%) (32%, 30%) (200 million ltd)
Final 28% - 56 million 40% - 80 million 32% - 64 million
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
