Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
Updated. Will it finally hit 5m with the week ending 21st numbers? |
Most definetly. It's going to sell around 350-400k in the week ending dec 21st. It's up another 40k in Japan and America and Europe will both go up.
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But are America and Europe spot on? They don't look it to me.
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Why? Europe seems about right. America also looks about right considering all the bundles and the holiday period. The best buy near my home had about 50 wiiU's in the middle of their shoppe and I saw 12 people purchasing a wiiU. Most of them bought the NSMBU bundle. Also remember, Nintendo systems always do very well during the holidays. I'd say both are correct, give or take 5-10k for America and maybe 5k for Europe.
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I'm not really interested in anecdotal evidence, it doesn't mean anything. WiiU sold 220k in the entire November with black friday and 3D Mario, yet in 2nd week of December (which isn't even the 2nd highest week of the month) we have 115k~. The month is on track for 500k+ which is a 300% increase over November. UK WiiU is overtracked 80k~ US is currently overtracked 50k+ as well.
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That would be a 150-200% increase, not 300% which is not uncommon for December. Especially when the system is selling so slowly to begin with. Please provide me a source about the wiiU being overtracked by 80k in the UK and 50k in the US.
I would also like to point out that November was a 4 week month while december will have 5 weeks of sales.
EDIT: While were at it, I would also like to see some evidence for your claim that 3ds is overtracked by 700k+ in the US. Especially when there were a number of months where we didn't even get any data for that specific system from npd.
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You're right 150 - 200%. Still, WiiU isn't going from 200k to 500k in December.
WiiU end of Nov NPD 1.61m, VGC = 1.72m (so actually 110k in the US) and 40k in UK (week of Xbox One VGC = 190k, Charttrack = 150k~).
Nov has Black friday, biggest DAY of the year. Sometimes Dec usually sees stronger sales, but on weekly average it's on par or actually below.
3DS is at 10.30m in US end of November, Nintendo confirmed with the last NPD. We show 10.78m (think it's been adjusted down) so only overtracked 480k now.
UK it was announced 3DS was at 2m last week, we have 2.54m, so 540k overtracked in UK.
It's all on Google, pretty easy to find. Go try yourself and if you're still struggling I'll find it for you. The NPD stuff is in a dataspread that I keep, it's pretty well tracked by me and others on GAF tho. Nintendo did say 10m in states in their NPD statement tho.
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NPD has a 10% error margin. Stating that it is overtracked by 110k on a base of 1.72m without any proof is ridiculous. It's a 6% error margin. Who is closer to the actual figure, NPD or Vg? We don't know, but it's definetly not factual information. So we can safely assume wiiU numbers is about right (we will never know the exact sale data other then shipment numbers provided by Nintendo).
On 3ds, again, that's a 5% margin error. Who is closer to the actual sale-through data? We will never know. Not even Nintendo knows that. You do know if NPD provided us with factual data, vgchartz would have already updated downwards the sales for 3ds. But they didn't because both numbers are equally plausible.
For the UK, it is overtracked. But the question is, by how much? It could be by 200k. It could also be by 500k. But again, we will never know. Vgchartz will probably update the data for UK when Nintendo releases some shipments figures in January.
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1)The fact MS, Sony and Nintendo use these figures in their press releases,2) I don't see them being off by 10% even if that is the margin of error. The big 3 know what they're shipping to these regions, they'll know if NPD are far off. 3)But those are the figures and if you want to swing it so it suits you that's your problem. I'm using the two sets of figures we have.
We will know, because shipments will back up NPD like they usually do. 4) What is this assumption that VGC and NPD tracking are on par??? I'm not even debating with you if you're using that as an argument.
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1)They use NPD data because it is the most accurate source that is available. NPD convinced the big companies to use their data. Like any service. Why would they always say *according to the npd data* when stating numbers? I will let you guess that one by yourself.
2) I guess you don't know that NPD only tracks 60% of the US and then scales it so that it equals to 100% of the population. However, that 40% that they aren't tracking can have different buying habits, different behaviours in general.
3) You are the one swinging that data to meet your agenda my good friend. Why can't you accept the fact that NPD numbers are estimations. Not factual data. As I said, vgchartz and NPD data that you were comparing merely had a 5% difference between the two. Which is why I said, since both are estimations, one of the 2 could be right at this point or both could be wrong. However, you can't simply state that 3ds is overtracked by X number because NPD says so when it's merely a couple percent.
4) Copy/paste the line where I said so. I beg you. I merely stated that both had equal chances of being right on the 3DS numbers since they both are so close to each other in %. NPD will obviously be closer to the real numbers most of the time due to having a much bigger sample of population then vgchartz ever will have. That doesn't mean that vgchartz never has the right data. This is where you're mistaken.
EDIT: Just a question for you, if NPD sales numbers were 100% factual, then why wouldn't vgchartz simply update their data to match 100% those of NPD? Vgchartz always keeps their data 5-10% within those of NPD. Which was what I was pointing out to you for the 3ds and wiiU. Their both within that range. Calling an estimation overtracked by using another estimation is pretty ironic. No matter how much more reliable npd is.
