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The GameCube also had far harsher direct competition right off the bat. 

Halo is a legit killer app that made their launch seem a little tame by comparison and the PS2 had the mother of all 2nd years with MGS2/FFX/Devil May/GTA3 all coming in that short burst of time and all exclusive.

Also poor first impressions aren't just written off by consumers. Sega actually did do a lot of good things with the Saturn after their launch and did release some pretty killer games, but the launch was soooooo bad that the damage inflicted was irreversible. You can't just think that people are sitting there waiting for Nintendo to get their act together.