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ioi said:

Their data scaling is nowhere near as sophisticated as you seem to think - they pretty much take the 60% of data they they get directly from the retail partners and multiply it by 1.66 to estimate for the whole market.

I have no idea how NPD works, having only met a very few GfK statisticians. So I simply replaced GfK with NPD in my arguments. If NPD really works as you seem to have experienced, that would not shed a good light (unless you unluckily met "doormen type" people..)