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So I was assuming that due to supply, MS would win December NPD (I figured about 1.25 to 1).  Until I was in Best Buy today.  I hadn't been in a store for about a month (I avoid all retail outlets during the holiday season).  But Best Buy had a $30.00 off deal for the new Kindle Fires.

So I ventured to the nearest Best Buy.  As soon as I walked in, there was a stack of XB one's front and center (see pic below).  I was then using the Vita demo model to try out Tearaway (fun game!) and a sales associate asked me if I needed anything.  I figured I'd ask about the PS4 and was told they got 40 on Sunday morning and they lasted about 10 minutes.

So I would now guess that they will be even in the December NPD, or PS4 will be slightly ahead.  It comes down to whether MS had a lot more supply,  there is a lot less demand for the XB One, or something in the middle.  I come down on the side of MS having a little more supply, but moderately less demand.

And I know, it's anecdotal, it's just my opinion.