Aielyn said:
I think people are going to be rather surprised.
500k.
To put this into context, the Wii sold over 1 million units in January for the first 5 years, and then over 670k in January 2012. In January 2013, it sold 320k, when at the same time, the Wii U sold 282k - a total between the two of 602k. The Wii has now been discontinued in both Japan and Europe, and is diminishing in sales relative to the Wii U.
As such, I am expecting Wii U at about 500k, and Wii at about 100k. I feel that this is a justifiable prediction - here's the 2012 (Wii) vs 2013 (Wii+WiiU) numbers for the non-holiday months:
January: 672k / 602k
February: 452k / 340k
March: 397k / 416k
April: 287k / 256k
May: 250k / 209k
June: 274k / 230k
July: 229k / 217k
August: 274k / 200k
September: 216k / 294k
October: 195k / 279k
And for November and December, here's 2011 (Wii) / 2012/2013 (Wii+WiiU):
November: 1728k / 1187k / 713k
December: 3201k / 3061k / [Currently unknown]
Note that these numbers have all come from VGChartz's Year-on-Year comparison chart system. What you will notice is that Wii+WiiU in 2013 typically tended to be only a little down on Wii in 2012, with the worst performance being August 2013 (down about 28%) and the best performance being October 2013 (up about 43%). For the first 10 months of 2013, the Wii+WiiU were 3043k, compared with the Wii selling about 3246k in the first 10 months of 2012, indicating only a very small drop in total Nintendo home console sales between the years, with regards to the first 10 months. I am, essentially, assuming that this will continue into 2014.
Considering the Wii+WiiU were able to do this without any notable releases in January 2013, I don't see any reason to think things will be dramatically different in January 2014.
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It would be really nice if you are right. Too bad the actual market is not going to be that responsive to the Wii U come Jan.
