One major flaw is the assumption that MS has claimed a large chunk of the PS2 real estate. I think this gen we're going to see that a large chunk of the PS2 real estate is pretty soft and will go wherever they think the best value is to be had, and for now that looks like PS4.
A lot of Xbox 360's 80 million is post Kinect. Xbox 360 was flagging and dying before Kinect. It wasn't former PS2 owners who jumped on Kinect, it was Wii owners who were looking for that HD upgrade Pachter kept banging on about, the ones who decided they wanted a bit more variety in their MoCo gaming. Whether they are actually committed to gaming in the long term is also a bit of a question. They bought 2 consoles last generation, maybe they think that's enough.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
