*In terms of shipments
2011: 14.58m shipped
2012: 14.81m shipped
2013 so far
5.13m.
Meaning to beat 2011 it needs 9.45m shipped.
If we look at what has sold for the Q already, we have US at 1.22m, Japan at 1.03m and Europe (VGC figures, at 1.49m).
Hard to believe Europe of all places is 3DS's strongest region this holiday, there are no 3DS titles in the top 30 in the UK chart! Possibly overtracked a few hundred K.
Anyhow, it's predicting the rest of the years sales that's the tricky part.
Last year 3DS saw a very impressive uptick in the US, Dec was 150%~ over Nov sales. Using this same rise, the 3DS could see 1.9m?!! Hey, it could happen. I think a conservative estimate would be 1.3m - 1.5m however. It could shock us either way.
Japan is difficult too, it was much higher this time last year (211k vs 122k this year) anyhow, 3DS went on to sell another 1.26m. I guess 1m would be a safe bet despite being down yoy 50%~ currently.
Europe, below US for sure. So remains to be seen. 1m - 1.3m though.
Sold so far
US: 1.22m
Japan: 1.03m
Europe: 1.2m~
Prediction
US: 1.3m - 1.5m
Japan: 1m~
Europe: 1m - 1.3m
+ 10% for elsewhere (judging by US, Japan and Europe totals end of 3rd Q, VGC shows 90%+ sell through in those regions)
Gives you 7.4m - 7.9m sell through.
+1m~ for shipments/stock on shelves.
If 3DS did sell between 7.4 - 7.9m, it likely wouldn't ship the 9.45m needed.
Agree? Disagree?
How can this not be 3DS' top year so far with Pokemon and 2DS???
