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I personally think that if MS is planning a price cut, then Sony would already know about it, and would've already decided what to do about it. Since they announced that the MGS4 bundle would be $499 in June, then there's probably no price cut on the way until sometime after (most likely around the holidays again).

Edit: In NA at least, as that's the only place that the MGS4 bundle's price has been announced.  They made drop the price in other territories to make up for the falling value of the USD.