Time has Passed, What are Sony's 20 PS4 Exclusives?

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"30 games in development. 20 of them are going to ship within the first year of the console’s life, and of those, 12 are new IP."

 

This is what Sony stated as far as their Luanch to 2014 Holiday lineup. Some time has passed for us to better assess what these games actually are.

1. Killzone: Shadow Fall- we know this because its a luanch title, duh.

2. Knack - same reason as KZ.

3. DriveClub

4. Infamous: Second Son

5. The Order: 1886

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That is 5 concrete titles that came or is coming before 2014 end. Now Sony states that 12 of those 20 are going to be new IPs....which also means only 8 are known IPs. Infamous and Killzone are establised already so there are 6 more to be revealed. The Order, DriveClub, and Knack are all new. This uses 3 slots of that 12, bringing us down to 9 new IPs to be revealed.

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6. MLB 14:The Show - this game is 1st Party IP that releases every year without fail, assuredly this will be in their line up. 99% Sure.

7. Uncharted Title - Sony revealed the teaser for this game at the PS4 Luanch event. No gameplay or strong info was shown but most expected this to be revealed sooner or later. With MS bringing the heat with a Halo title next Fall, Uncharted is the likely candidate to sustain Sony for the Holiday. On the other hand, no dates were shown.  90% Sure.

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So the 2 listed above give us 2 more ticks for Known IPs, now standing at 4 more.

Now the remainder of this list is determined by a few factors. Who is working on PS4 titles? Does Sony include Indies/digital titles also within this list? They might. Though a point ot keep in mind is that it has to be a Sony Published title. Many of the Indies are self published yet still are timed exclusive. Transistor, Contrast, and The Witness comes to mind. So if this is the case....

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8. Resogun - New IP (although mostly based on SuperStardust) which brings the score to 8 New IPs left.

9. Escape Plan - Known IP, 3 left.

10. Hohokum - New IP, 7 left.

11. Rime - New IP, 6 left.

12. Flower - Old IP, 2 left

13. Shadow of the Beast - Old IP

14. Sound Shapes - Old IP

15. Hell Diver - New IP, 5 left.

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So if Indies/digital titles are actually counted, all of the known IPs are spoken for.

Sony still has 5 New IPs to go.

Its also important to note that several of these games are ports, which make them a little less likely to be boasted as Sony's infamous 20. Sound Shapes, Escape Plan, Flower all appeared on PS3/Vita. So if you believe them not to be included but Sony does count digital titles then you still have 3 Old IPs to play with.

From here is really just speculation. Many rumors of possible games coming to PS4.

• Arc the Lad Title - the game's trademark was recently renewed by Sony leading many to speculate of a possible new title. This would be good as Sony's JRPG/Japanese appealing games is rather thin atm. 30% Possibility.
• Bend Studios Title/Syphon Filter - Bend has stated after working on the Uncharted GA (Vita)title, that they are working on PS4 game. They have not been seen in the Console space in quite some time but they are really good developers. Ready at Dawn finally got their chance with The Order, I can see Bend doing the same. Syphon Filter is the only doable IP of their's to think of. 50% Chance.
• Crash Bandicoot Reboot - Sony has left very cryptic clues about them possibly resurrecting the old IP. Everyone involved is being very Coy about it tho. Activision recently removed all info relating to Crash and when prompted about it one representative let it slip that Acti no longer owns the IP....only later to turn it into a "No comment". Next thing we heard was Acti claiming that they do still own it....but why would they have ever responded with a "No comment" if that was a sure thing? Something is happening here. Sony might not own the IP but doesn't mean they can't be leasing the IP for one of their studios to make, similar to COD Vita. 50% Chance.
• Geurilla Games RPG - With the suggestive aquisitions made by the studio in the last year, them making an RPG is pretty concrete. Whether it is a 2014 title is another thing. I find very little chance in seeing GG pump out TWO games in PS4's launch year. 20% Chance.
• Media Molecule Game - completely up in the air. This studio is good at pulling off the impossible. LBP was made with a team of 20 ppl or less. They just released Tearaway on Vita but I am sure they have something cooking soon for PS4. More than likely will not be LBP, but something just as unique. Sony is lacking in games to appeal to younger audience so MM title would be golden.I say 80% likely.
• Sony Santa Monica New IP - SSM is a pretty big studio. Most famous for the God of War series. We recently just saw a release of GoW Ascension. Yet that most assuredly did not use the entire dev team to make. Like Naughty Dog, SSM is split into parts. Rumors of SSM making a new IP have been drifitng about for years, new Battlestar Galactica Writer joining the giant screams YES! We haven't seen anything outside the GoW series so that other team is definitely up to something. 70% likely.
• Sony Japan Studios- No idea what these guys have been doing. They technically released Knack which wasn't a huge AAA project. Many of them might be allocated to Vita titles at the moment so maybe they are too busy for PS4. The Last Guardian is most likely their new next gen indeavor and who knows when that will come out. 10% chance in hell.
• Until Dawn - this game dissappeared off the face of the earth. Maybe it was quietly cancelled, or maybe it has been moved to next gen. The game was a MOVE title also. Sony currently has 0 games that utilize their motion controls on PS4. We have seen how many motion games transitioned to next gen to be more in the public eye (Ryse comes to mind). It sounded like a promising title. Hopefully it has not gone the way of The Getaway and 8 Days(which looked frickin AMAZING!!!). 40% chance.