| sieanr said: I hit around 1mb from usenet, with really good torrents also reaching that speed. And with a bit of work, you can get untouched bluray and HDDVD rips, as well as very high quality broadcast grabs. |
That's still 7 hours to download a 25gb file... if you can average 1mb/second. Add the features that will exist in 2 years, and the average disc will be 40gb. Let's just go with your lowball numbers to make it look more lucrative.
7hours... for a 1.5 hour video. Ok, let's see... I decide I want to buy it at 6:00pm. I start downloading. I am then ready to watch it at 1AM. So my movie time would be over at 2:30AM.
Shave that time down to 2 hours and you got a deal for me. However the only problem is, you need 30mbps connection. The only way to get that is to get a optical connection shelling out in the ballpark of 2000$/month.
I dunno about you, but that sounds a bit steep for my internet... Shit, that sounds a bit steep for all my bills... x2.
maybe in 4 years the average internet will be 10mbps like you. Maybe in 6 years the average internet connection would be 20mbps. Hey, while were throwing figures out, maybe 30 in 8 years. But hey, the 10mbps cable connection has been around for around 8 years, and hey, it's still not average. Actually not even 5mbps is average. 3mbps is average. Maybe in another 8 years 5 or possibly 10 will be average. I just dont see the internet bandwidth increasing by that much... there's really no point to it, unless it comes to streaming HD content. And well, that's a questionable market for a multi-billion dollar INFRASTRUCTRE rebuild... just of the cable network. That's not looking at the multi-billion dollar backbone, and then likely 5-10billion dollar servers that it would take to host a monolith like that. I seriously dont see HD video content anywhere... anytime soon.
A great example of HD video download speeds...
Download that, and tell me how it feels to download a 3 minute 185mb file. Think that's pain? Try going with the full 168min movie. (56x longer) Add about 3 hours of special features. (that's about 180 minutes, or about 60x longer than the trailer on it's own)
So add all that together, and your looking at around 116x longer download time than that trailer... for a SINGLE movie.
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