What is more important for Wii U: strong holiday or sustained momentum in 2014?

[zorg1000]

Soundwave said:

Unfortunately I don't think DKC is going to perform all that great. Maybe 2.5 million LTD over a long period of time. 

The system is over-saturated with platformers (again poor planning on Nintendo's part), heck the system comes with 1 1/2 platformers bundled right from the get go.

I think sales will indeed sag quite a bit from Jan-March. Mario Kart is where they basically have to make their big stand I think. Price cut for sure around there if not the nuclear option of a gamepad-free SKU for an even deeper possible price drop. 

NES, SNES, N64, GC, Wii, GB, GBC, GBA, DS, 3DS all are very platformer heavy and they didnt seem to cannabalize each other. 

Also looking at mainline Donkey Kong games on consoles in the past 20 years all have sold much better than 2.5 million.

Donkey Kong Country-9.3m, Donkey Kong Country 2-5.15m, Donkey Kong Country 3-3.5m, Donkey Kong 64-5.27m, Donkey Kong Country Returns-5.97m, thats on consoles with install bases ranging from 33-100m so install base really isnt a huge factor for Donkey Kong games. Even Donkey Kong Jungle Beat which was a non-traditional entry that used an unpopular and expensive bongo add-on sold 1.34m.

Gamecube only had an install base of 22m and if it had a mainline traditional Donkey Kong platformer it likely would have sold 4m. As long as Wii U ends up with over 10m install base than Tropical Freeze should sell 2.5m.