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PS4 will sell like the PS3 in Japan. Probably a little less due to shifting demographics in Japan.

People who think it's still the year 2000/2001 over there are going to be in for a bit of a rude awakening. The Japanese market has changed *a lot*.

Besides there's nothing really that the PS4 has that the PS3 didn't, if anything Japanese game development is likely to slow even further this generation. 

The Final Fantasy series for example has definitely been weakened since the last generation and that's going to hurt FFXV.

So where's the supposed surge supposed to come from? From which software? Or are Japanese just suddenly going to start buying a console where 90% of the software is made in the West?

There's no logic behind this arguement other than Sony fans getting too giddy over some early sales results from the West and thinking everything is exactly like the PS2 days, when that was a long, long time ago and the world has moved on. Just because the PS4 may win in North America (mostly by catering to PC/Western developers at that), doesn't mean the same follows in Japan.