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To put it in perspective, in its first couple of days:

Japan - about 1/12th of system owners bought it.

USA - about 1/6th of system owners bought it.

EDIT: Not counting digital, of course.

Considering the install base and that Mario games have good to great legs, overall I'm not seeing a huge flop, but the jury is still out on whether or not it proves itself as a true system seller. I sure hope it does; the game is absolutely stellar.