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I'm sorry but I completely disagree with your analysis.

Nintendo going 3rd party is literally the worse decision they could make long term, short of selling off Mario to Sony for a packet of magic beans.

The reason Nintendo does well (last year was the first time they made a loss, ever) is synergy. Their hardware and their software businesses support each other. People buy Nintendo hardware because they want Nintendo software, and they buy Nintendo software because they have Nintendo hardware.

Nintendo's biggest strength is that if you want to play Mario, or Zelda, or Pokémon, you have to own their hardware. If they were to go 3rd party, instantly the 3ds sales would fail. Because why would you buy a dedicated handheld if you can get Pokémon on your phone? And their software sales would fall to, because who is going to play Zelda on an Xbox or Playstation?

Nintendo have a solid market where families are concerned, they're a trusted brand, not unlike Disney. They may become relegated to selling Mario and Wii Sports to soccer moms and tweens for a generation, but that would still constitute a much more sensible business strategy than going 3rd party.

Plus, Wind Waker is 100% worth $300, stop bitching and pony up :p