Yeah, the SteamOS/Steam Machine thing as specific hardware are really not just major factors here (the hardware aspect even more so given the hardware isn't particularly more fixed an optimization target than PCs in general), compact gaming PCs are compact gaming PCs. Replacing Windows as an OS is really a minor internal political concern for PC gamers, not something that changes things re: consoles. Of course, a minorly more efficient OS vs Windows, and saving the licence fee for Windows if you can manage to avoid it completely (not just dual-boot/v-machine) are great and all, but otherwise nothing much changes: GL/Mantle isn't much different on Windows, and Steam's own service also applies there (and OSX).
Having their own SteamOS ecosystem can only help Valve's Steam as a service though, even if most users are just 'converting' from using Steam on Windows it just accelerates their growth/locks in gamers (relatively) and puts them in a great position as EVERYBODY eventually moves to all-download infrastructure they are established as THE nexus of 'PC gaming' while to some extent reinventing that market. Really, instead of fighting Google over new business sectors and trying to prevent Sony's Blu-Ray format from winning, that is what MS should have been doing to hold onto the PC gaming market, synergizing with XBOX which always was supposed to synergize with Windows gaming, yet in reality there really is no synergy they accomplished. EDIT: Other than imposing the weird Windows8/WindowsPhone tile interface on everybody who has been avoiding those OS' so that they will 'get used to it' and theoretically be more inclined to buy another Windows OS device.
I don't really see it changing things in the console/PC dynamic this generation, but if it works out within their current context they will establish themselves as the nexus of PC gaming completely independent of MS and may well be in a good position to challenge the closed console market later... For next gen (PS5) I kind of expect Sony to return to more heavily subsidized (initially) consoles to offer more bang for the buck and build up their player base, and doing so should be fine if this gen works out well for them and the rest of Sony doesn't go to shit (whether MS keeps trying to compete is unclear, by all signs they will do significantly worse world-wide than lastgen, albeit they can hopefully avoid warranty return problems like RROD). But in such a world, the console makers probably end up looking more like Nintendo now with Wii U, justifiable even more by exclusives. That said, I think Sony is probably in a good position to make such a reality work, with good 1st party devs, good 2nd party relationships, insular Japanese market, AND all their film and TV IP for exclusive game licencing/tie-ins. On the other hand, Steam may be best placed in China.
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