Wii is at 5.0m already... >_<

[TheSource]

I made a graph of data based on the assumption that Nov-Dec data is inflated, and PS3 is not yet out in Europe (I made PS3 sales 80% of the rate of averaged sales of Japan and Americas for non March and holiday months). If the reduced sales rates are held constant from March-Sept for Wii and 360 and April to October for PS3 (adjusted from March to account for the huge Euro release), the Wii ties the 360 around September. I think any transition before that time is very unrealistic. I was fairly generous too - I had Wii at 5 million for the end of February worldwide. Due to price and end of year sales, I had 360 outselling PS3 on a monthly average for most of the year worldwide. However, at the end of the year, I have PS3 outselling 360, because it will be in demand in three markets, not two. With that said, I expect 360 sales for the year at around 6-7 million, Wii sales at 12-16 million, and PS3 sales at 7-8 million (which is amazing given the price). If 360 is beyond the highend, and Wii is lower then than the low end, say 8 million to 11 million, Wii would not catch up until Spring 2008. If my formula was somehow perfect here is what it would mean in terms of milestones 360 hits 10 million sold in March/April Wii hits 10 million sold in July/August PS3 hits 10 million sold in Feb/March 2008' (slightly faster than 360 in terms of timing) Wii hits 15 million 1-3 months before 360, likely in late October- early December 360 hits 15 million before the end of 2007 I think (late Dec probably), but it could be as late as Feb 08' PS3 hits 8 million about 11 months after 360 did (mid November 2007) I don't know how to copy the graph but the data for 2007 came out like this: March 31, 2007: 360 - 9.757 million Wii - 6.145 million PS3 - 3.235 million June 30, 2007: 360 - 11.190 million Wii - 9.580 million PS3 - 4.608 million September 30, 2007 Wii - 13.015 million 360 - 12.623 million PS3 - 5.982 million December 31, 2007 Wii - 19.000 million (assumes sales like Nov-Dec 2006, for all three markets, for full time frame, I can see 15-20 million by the end of the year if manufacturing increases as it should.) 360 - 14.861 (assumes modest sales all around - I can see this in the 14-16 million range) PS3 - 8.730 million (good sales in one market - probably Europe- decent to bad elsewhere, should be in the 8-10 million range by year end) I have 5 major caveats though about my own data... 1) Assumes most Halo fans already own a 360 (if not, add 1 million) 2) Assume PS3 has no Final Fantasy games in Japan this year (add 500k if false) 3) Assumes Wii non games continue to do very well across the world (-2 million if false) 4) Assumes Dragon Quest, Mario, Smash Brothers appeal to the Japenese (-1 mill if false) 5) Assumes no price cut for 360 in N.A., or PS3 - anywhere (+1-2 million if false)