Nintendo's plans to sell 9 million WiiU this fiscal year suggests we might actually see another price cut before the end of the fiscal year. I would say a likely scenario is a price cut in januari, after christmas sales.
Even though I find it very unlikely for Nintendo to reach their target for this fiscal year, I do believe WiiU still has potential to be a success.
There are three major issues to be dealt with;
1) Price and value
2) The quantity of exclusive high quality and high profile software
3) How well or bad the competitors' execute their market strategy between november 2013 and march 2014
Bare in mind that Nintendo will have an advantage of 4 million systems sold before PS4 and XboxOne have reached the shelves. Even though both Sony and Microsoft will eat into that advantage quite fast, it'll most likely take them 4 months to reach a comparable figure. Also bare in mind that once PS4 and XboxOne are out, sales of the current generation will gradualy implode, giving room for WiiU to gain marketshare. Considering we will most likely see a shortage of PS4 and XboxOne during the first 3-6 months, WiiU also has a chance to gain some momentum at the expense of its newer rivals.
The million dollar question is; considering the above facts, how far off is Iwata with his sales prediction of 9 million WiiU this fiscal year? I'd say he will be 2-4 million systems off, depending on a price cut in January.
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