I found something interesting when I was doing last generation PS2-XB-GC comparisons. When you align the launch numbers, you get this chart:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC®1=All&cons2=PS2®2=All&cons3=XB®3=All&align=1
which shows that the PS2 diverged from the same rate the other consoles were selling at roughly the 39th week mark. Looking back at the unaligned chart:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC®1=All&cons2=PS2®2=All&cons3=XB®3=All
The 39th week mark is still well before the launch of the XB and GC, meaning the decision of the leader was made before the others even came out. But what happened right around that time that would have caused that decision to be made? That was around December 3, 2000. Ok, PS2's first christmas would certainly cause a spike, although it's funny that the spike wasn't nearly as big as the usual christmas spikes. But from that point on, the slope changes. Looking back through history, what was it?
According to Wikipedia, there was a supply shortage on the first christmas so only a few million were sold. It was only after that supply shortage was addressed that the slope changed. Which suggests that the slope would have been steeper in the beginning had they had adequate supplies and then continued at that rate. The slopes for the other two consoles remained fairly steady, supply apparently meeting/exceeding demand until near the end of the generation. Also interesting to note that price cuts for the xbox, gc, and ps2 had absolutely no effect on the slope, certainly not at the point the cut happened.
Current generation chart:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&align=1
and of course, you see that the Wii is on a much steeper slope and also has demand exceeding supply even at the 30th week mark, which makes you wonder what the final slope will ultimately be when supply catches up with demand. The 360 and PS3 follow remarkable similar slopes. In fact, they fit right in with what the original PS2 slope was doing.
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&align=1
So, for the core gaming market, it appears that the PS3 really isn't out of the race yet. It is capturing the same size market the PS2 captured, and the 360 is doing the same. They are both doing just fine. Maybe not as good as the Wii, but still doing good, which is really saying something considering the price difference from its predecessors.
Just food for thought.
