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TheLastStarFighter on 23 October 2013
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Torillian said:
TheLastStarFighter said:

 

I think it's mix of the two.  Your userbase becomes more diversified as it increases, no question.  But many sequels decline with each iteration.  But you also see sequel increase in sales with userbase if they remain popular (COD, GTA, etc).

I think you should avoid exclusive titles when looking at attach rates because they often are unique titles.  A great game to look at is something with consistent interest year over year.  I like Madden on X360 for example.  From '06 to '10 sales increased every year until it peaked at about 5X year 1.  They then experienced a modest decline as gamers begin to experience apathy with their old system.  The increase is not consistent or linear.  There are many factors such as the titles that early adopters prefer.  But there is no question that if a series has consitent interest sales will increase signifantly and measurably with userbase.

And yes, W101 is a much bigger flop than Beyond.

Well I'll preface this next post with the idea that I know I have too much time on my hands.  Thank you for picking a specific example, it finally got me to look at it closely, and I even made a graph for giggles.

Below is a graph comparing the 360's NA install base at the time of launch to total Madden Sales.

As you can see you could probably extrapolate linearity to some degree from launch until maybe about 5 million sales, after that it quickly tops off even out to 35m NA install base.  So yes you can say that WiiU could have sold more games if it had a higher install base, but only until a certain point and then it'll be entirely pointless, the fanbase has been established and adding more random users will not do anything for the sales of the game.  

Love the graph!  I think it illustrates the point very well.  I think it also illustrates the need for systems (I'm looking at you Wii U, Vita) to get to a certain userbase as quickly as possible.  Those 10, 20, 30+ million users are really key levels to sell enough games to make money.