So is Beyond officially the flop of the year now?

[TheLastStarFighter]

Torillian said:

Mr Khan said:
This is true, but when you're talking about a game that, for whatever reason, obviously had limited appeal, then it's more fair to bring userbase into play.

Indeed, i would argue that userbase is fair game unless the game is a "killer app", that is, a significant system seller, since those are the kinds of games that you see post more consistent results across generations, whereas other games are much more userbase-dependent.

But it isn't something where greater userbase means greater sales proportionally.  Take a random example of a series I like, Atelier Arland + Ayesha.  We'll stick to NA sales.  First game comes out in 2009 when there aren't many other JRPGs to buy on PS3 and sells 170,000.  Next you have Totori a year later with 80,000, and then the next two following years see 30k and 30k.  You'd say the series is declining and I'd agree the NA userbase is in decline, but I see many more games following this kind of trend over a linear increase in sales that matches up with the increase in install base.  

You can't just say W101 sold about as well as Beyond because it had a 20th of the userbase because increasing the userbase of W101 would not increase the sales it got by 20 times.  In fact I'd argue that the userbase affect is not even close to one to one which is what many in this thread are assuming for their comparisons.  

As the userbase increases we basically always see the attach rate of games and series going down.  Is that because those series are incline or because you're just increasing the number you divide by when you calculate attach rate as the user base increases?  I'd guess the later.  

 

I think it's mix of the two.  Your userbase becomes more diversified as it increases, no question.  But many sequels decline with each iteration.  But you also see sequel increase in sales with userbase if they remain popular (COD, GTA, etc).

I think you should avoid exclusive titles when looking at attach rates because they often are unique titles.  A great game to look at is something with consistent interest year over year.  I like Madden on X360 for example.  From '06 to '10 sales increased every year until it peaked at about 5X year 1.  They then experienced a modest decline as gamers begin to experience apathy with their old system.  The increase is not consistent or linear.  There are many factors such as the titles that early adopters prefer.  But there is no question that if a series has consitent interest sales will increase signifantly and measurably with userbase.

And yes, W101 is a much bigger flop than Beyond.