Blu-Ray is now outselling HD-DVD around 3:1 in both Europe and North America. For Japan it's more like 50:1, it will take a miracle for Toshiba and Microsoft to turn this around.
But why would we really want HD-DVD to win? Both formats use the same codecs, but Blu-Ray allows for higher bitrates. Blu-Ray discs are protected from scratching unlike HD-DVD discs, Blu-Ray discs can store more data per layer.
Most of the industry is and was behind Blu-Ray. Costs of both players and disc production is coming down rapidly.
In the past the Blu-Ray argument of it becoming the dominant movie format or not was often used as FUD against buying a PS3. IMO this would only really be a valid argument if only movies benefitted from the additional storage capacity, but that's not the case currently games like Resistance and Motorstorm already benefit from uncompressed 7.1 surround audio, Lair and many other future games will put the extra storage to some good use as well. If UMD for the PSP can easily survive why wouldn't Blu-Ray disc be able to do so as well nomatter what happens to the format with regard to movies? IMO XBox 360 HD-DVD users have a lot more to worry about as HD-DVD currently cannot be used to benefit any games, even if it could the currently sold drive would be pretty slow as it reads at half the speed of the PS3's Blu-Ray drive.