I don't think any system is ever really completely doomed. There is no inherent reason that the 3DS should be selling better than the Vita based on hardware alone. The Vita has a better screen, better specs, and is the same price as the most popular 3DS SKU (atm). The two screened configuration and clamshell have their advantages, but at the same time, the Vita has dual analog. The only difference is in software support, so if Sony could get software support (and quality) to the same level as the 3DS, there is no reason it couldn't succeed. The install base may be too hard to overcome now, but the Vita could certainly improve its position.
That being said, Sony either lacks the desire or the ability to put out portable games with the consistency and quality of Nintendo. Sony just doesn't seem to treat the Vita as a priority, and until they do, the Vita is not going to succeed.
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