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Neither one.

The Vita will end up doing moderately well in Japan. It has an excellent attach rate and the games are coming.

The Wii U will become a moderate success. The problem is that the Wii was an anomaly that even a "Wii 2" wouldn't have come close to duplicating. Once the Wii U builds a library of games like Mario Kart and Smash Bros., it will be okay.

People are just going to have to get used to the idea that both Sony handhelds and Nintendo home consoles will probably be niche markets more often than not. Unless there is another viral craze, both lines will probably not touch the market leaders. Likewise, people also need to get over the fact that this is not necessarily a failure.