I can't imagine less than 5 million by the end of the Wii U's life-cycle.
Still, it will be interesting to watch. There may be a bit of Mario fatigue building around the Mario name in general. That's to say, people might not buy a game as readily simply because it has "Mario" in the title and instead Nintendo will have to advertise differences and make people want each version. Galaxy will probably be safe from that, as it's somewhat new, but the other lines might have to prove themselves.
As for the game itself, those screenshots look light years better than that gif.








